1. Course Overview

This program equips policymakers, central bank economists, financial regulators, and macro‑prudential analysts with the tools to identify, assess, and monitor systemic risks that threaten macro‑financial stability. It integrates macroeconomic analysis, financial sector diagnostics, stress testing, and early‑warning systems to support evidence‑based policy decisions.

The course aligns with World Bank Financial Stability Frameworks, IMF FSAP methodologies, and Basel Committee macro‑prudential standards.

2. Learning Objectives

Participants will be able to:

• Understand the sources and transmission channels of systemic macro‑financial risks.

• Analyze interactions between the real economy and the financial system.

• Apply macro‑prudential tools and systemic risk indicators.

• Conduct macro‑financial stress tests and scenario analysis.

• Assess vulnerabilities in banks, households, corporates, and sovereigns.

• Use early‑warning systems and risk dashboards.

• Integrate systemic risk analysis into policy frameworks and financial stability reports.

• Produce macro‑financial risk assessments aligned with World Bank and IMF standards.

3. Target Audience

• Central bank financial stability and research departments

• Financial sector regulators and supervisors

• Ministry of Finance macro‑fiscal and debt units

• World Bank–funded financial sector reform teams

• Banking sector analysts and risk managers

• Academics and researchers in macro‑finance

• Development practitioners and consultants

4. Detailed Course Outline

Module 1: Introduction to Systemic Macro‑Financial Risks

• What constitutes systemic risk

• Lessons from global and regional financial crises

• World Bank and IMF frameworks for systemic risk analysis

• Macro‑financial linkages and feedback loops

• Case studies from emerging and developing economies

Module 2: Macro‑Financial Surveillance Frameworks

• Components of macro‑financial surveillance

• Real sector–financial sector interactions

• Credit cycles, leverage cycles, and asset price dynamics

• External shocks and global financial spillovers

• Role of macro‑prudential authorities

Module 3: Systemic Risk Indicators & Early Warning Systems

• Leading indicators of financial crises

• Credit‑to‑GDP gap, leverage ratios, liquidity indicators

• Market‑based indicators (spreads, volatility, CDS)

• Household and corporate vulnerability indicators

• Designing early‑warning dashboards

Module 4: Banking Sector Vulnerability Analysis

• Capital adequacy, asset quality, profitability, liquidity

• Concentration risk and interconnectedness

• Funding structures and rollover risks

• Supervisory data vs. market data

• Identifying systemically important banks (D‑SIBs)

Module 5: Non‑Bank Financial Sector & Shadow Banking Risks

• Insurance, pension funds, investment funds

• Shadow banking and regulatory arbitrage

• Liquidity mismatches and run risks

• Interconnectedness with the banking system

• Monitoring non‑bank systemic vulnerabilities

Module 6: Sovereign, External & Fiscal Risks

• Sovereign debt vulnerabilities

• Exchange rate and external financing risks

• Fiscal‑financial linkages and contingent liabilities

• SOE and PPP‑related systemic risks

• Integrating macro‑fiscal risks into systemic analysis

Module 7: Stress Testing & Scenario Analysis

• Macro‑financial stress testing frameworks

• Designing baseline and adverse scenarios

• Sensitivity analysis and multi‑factor shocks

• Top‑down vs. bottom‑up stress testing

• Interpreting stress test results for policy action

Module 8: Macro‑Prudential Policy & Systemic Risk Mitigation

• Macro‑prudential tools (CCyB, LTV, DTI, liquidity tools)

• Policy transmission and effectiveness

• Coordination with monetary and fiscal policy

• Addressing procyclicality and systemic vulnerabilities

• Designing macro‑prudential policy frameworks

Module 9: Systemic Risk in World Bank & IMF Programs

• Systemic risk analysis in FSAP missions

• World Bank financial stability diagnostics

• Integration into Development Policy Operations (DPOs)

• Global case studies of macro‑financial reforms

• Lessons learned from emerging markets

Module 10: Practical Exercises & Capstone Project

• Building a systemic risk dashboard

• Conducting a macro‑financial stress test

• Assessing vulnerabilities in a simulated financial system

• Preparing a macro‑financial stability assessment

• Capstone: Develop a Systemic Risk Analysis Report for a simulated country

5. Training Methodology

• Expert‑led lectures and guided discussions

• Hands‑on macro‑financial modelling and risk analysis

• Case studies from World Bank and IMF FSAPs

• Group work and scenario‑based simulations

• Practical sessions using Excel, R, Python (optional)

• Capstone project with peer and instructor feedback

6. Deliverables & Outputs

Participants will receive:

• A Systemic Risk Analysis Toolkit (frameworks, templates, datasets)

• Stress testing and early‑warning system templates

• Macro‑financial vulnerability assessment tools

• Capstone project report and presentation

• Certificate of Completion from Regewall Training Institute