Course Overview

This program equips policymakers, fiscal analysts, and debt managers with the tools to identify, quantify, monitor, and manage fiscal risks arising from government guarantees and other debt‑related contingent liabilities. It aligns with the World Bank Fiscal Risk Management Framework, IMF Fiscal Transparency Code, and OECD guidelines on contingent liabilities and public sector risk management.

Participants learn how guarantees affect public debt sustainability, how to evaluate their fiscal cost, and how to design governance systems that minimize risk while supporting development objectives.

2. Learning Objectives

Participants will be able to:

• Understand the nature and fiscal implications of government guarantees.

• Identify and classify debt‑related fiscal risks across the public sector.

• Apply international frameworks for contingent liability management.

• Quantify the probability and expected cost of guarantee calls.

• Integrate guarantees into debt sustainability analysis (DSA) and fiscal risk statements.

• Strengthen governance, approval, and monitoring systems for guarantees.

• Prepare fiscal risk assessments and policy recommendations aligned with World Bank standards.

3. Target Audience

• Ministry of Finance and Treasury officials

• Debt Management Offices (DMOs)

• Fiscal risk and macro‑fiscal units

• Public investment and PPP units

• State‑owned enterprise (SOE) oversight units

• World Bank–funded project teams

• Auditors, accountants, and PFM specialists

• Researchers and policy analysts

4. Detailed Course Outline

Module 1: Understanding Fiscal Risks & Government Guarantees

• Definition and types of fiscal risks

• Explicit vs. implicit contingent liabilities

• Government guarantees as a source of fiscal vulnerability

• World Bank and IMF perspectives on fiscal risk management

• Case studies of guarantee‑related fiscal crises

Module 2: Mapping Debt‑Related Fiscal Risks

• Fiscal risks from SOEs, PPPs, subnational governments, and financial sector

• Quasi‑fiscal activities and hidden liabilities

• Risks from exchange rate, interest rate, and refinancing pressures

• Tools for identifying and categorizing fiscal risks

• Developing a fiscal risk register

Module 3: Government Guarantees – Purpose, Design & Use

• Types of guarantees: loan, performance, PPP guarantees, credit guarantees

• Development rationale for issuing guarantees

• Guarantee design principles to minimize fiscal exposure

• Pricing guarantees and risk‑based fees

• Eligibility criteria and due diligence

Module 4: Quantifying Fiscal Risks from Guarantees

• Probability‑based valuation of guarantees

• Expected loss vs. unexpected loss

• Scenario analysis and stress testing

• Credit risk assessment for beneficiaries (SOEs, PPPs, private sector)

• Tools for guarantee valuation (simple models and advanced approaches)

Module 5: Integrating Guarantees into Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA)

• How guarantees affect public debt dynamics

• Incorporating contingent liabilities into LIC‑DSF and MTDS frameworks

• Stress testing debt sustainability with guarantee shocks

• Assessing the impact of new guarantees on debt sustainability

• Communicating risks to policymakers and development partners

Module 6: Governance & Institutional Arrangements

• Legal frameworks for issuing guarantees

• Institutional roles and responsibilities

• Approval processes and risk‑based decision‑making

• Internal controls and oversight mechanisms

• International best practices (OECD, World Bank, IMF)

Module 7: Monitoring, Reporting & Transparency

• Guarantee registers and tracking systems

• Monitoring beneficiary performance and compliance

• Early warning indicators for guarantee calls

• Reporting requirements under World Bank and IMF frameworks

• Fiscal risk statements and public disclosure practices

Module 8: Managing Guarantee Calls & Fiscal Impact

• Budgeting for guarantee calls

• Provisioning and setting aside fiscal buffers

• Managing liquidity and cash flow implications

• Impact on fiscal space and debt sustainability

• Designing mitigation and recovery mechanisms

Module 9: Guarantees in PPPs, SOEs & Infrastructure Finance

• Government support packages in PPPs

• SOE guarantees and quasi‑fiscal risks

• Infrastructure financing and risk‑sharing arrangements

• Managing risks from large public investment projects

• Case studies from emerging and developing economies

Module 10: Practical Exercises & Capstone Project

• Conducting a fiscal risk assessment for a proposed guarantee

• Designing a guarantee valuation model

• Preparing a guarantee monitoring and reporting framework

• Drafting a fiscal risk statement section on guarantees

• Capstone: Develop a Government Guarantee Fiscal Risk Management Strategy for a simulated country

5. Training Methodology

• Expert‑led lectures and guided discussions

• Hands‑on fiscal risk modelling and scenario analysis

• Case studies from World Bank and IMF programs

• Group work and policy simulations

• Practical sessions on guarantee registers, valuation, and reporting

• Capstone project with peer and instructor feedback

6. Deliverables & Outputs

Participants will receive:

• A Fiscal Risk & Guarantee Management Toolkit (frameworks, templates, datasets)

• Guarantee valuation and fiscal risk assessment tools

• Sample fiscal risk statements and reporting templates

• Capstone project report and presentation

• Certificate of Completion from Regewall Training Institute